When it comes to defining “swing decisions”, the results can be summed up as such: swinging at pitches upon which you can do damage whilst also laying off pitches upon which that is more difficult.
In simpler terms, it is both swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls.
Simply “not chasing” can be achieved by not swinging at anything. This is why we often caution to not just look at a hitter’s “walk rate”, especially in the lower levels where pitchers have less command.
To better illustrate swing decisions, this article looks at all hitters who accrued at least 200 plate appearances in the minor leagues in 2024 with a chart that plots their in-zone swing% on the x-axis and their chase% on the y-axis.
The result is a visualized “cloud” of hitters’ swing decisions, which will be broken down into four key categories: elite swing decisions, passive hitters, free-swingers and a so-called “danger zone.”
For ease of viewing, I’ve “reversed” the y-axis so chasing more, which is less ideal, is at the bottom of the graph while laying off pitches out of the zone is towards the top of the graph.
Hitters displaying the combination of swinging at strikes in the zone while not swinging at balls would be found in the ‘top-right” quadrant (elite swing decisions). Hitters who have the unfortunate combination of often swinging at pitches out of the zone while choosing not to swing in the zone—perhaps a signal that they are having a hard time identifying pitches out of the hand—would be found in the bottom-left quadrant (the danger zone).
We’ll begin with the overall player cloud, which shoes that the center of the cluster corresponds approximately to a 74% in-zone swing and 27% chase rate.
Near the top of the graph, where we find hitters who are less susceptible to swinging at pitches out of the zone, we can see, for example, Edgleen Perez (Yankees), who chases at 7% of the pitches he sees outside of the strike zone.
Moving to the left on the graph means that a hitter is more likely to “take” a pitch that is in the heart of the strike zone. Here, we see that on these particular pitches—typically the ones upon which a hitter can do the most damage—Chase Meidroth (Red Sox) swings less than 46% of the time.
Finally, we see Deyvison De Los Santos (Marlins) near the bottom of the graph, indicative of the fact that he chases 44% of the pitches he sees out of the zone. He is, however, also near the right side of the graph, because he also swings at 82% of the pitches in the heart of the strike zone—an indicator that he is a free-swinger.
Let’s look at each quadrant in greater detail and examine some hitters found in each zone.
Elite Swing Decisions: (IZ-Swing% >74%, Chase% <27%):
Let’s zoom into the upper-right of the graph where hitters showed the best swing decision tendencies in 2024:
The hitter who had the highest in-zone swing% amongst hitters who chased at a lower-than-average was Filippo de Turi (Brewers), whose IZ-Swing% minus Chase% of 70% is the highest of any hitter in the minor leagues, edging out the 69% mark of Edgleen Perez (Yankees). The Brewer infielder’s contact rate and his exit velocities are below average, but his ability to discern which pitches he should swing at or not is excellent.
Jorge Quintana, another Brewer, finds himself on the outer rim of the player cloud. Ben Badler recently reported on the strides Quintana has made defensively, suggesting he may stick at shortstop. Although his performance was in the DSL, the 17-year-old arguably showed one of the best combinations of laying off balls while also pouncing on the pitches in the heart of the zone.
Several Top 100 prospects find themselves here in support of their fantasy floors, such as Dalton Rushing (Dodgers), Walker Jenkins (Twins), Bryce Eldridge (Giants), Michael Arroyo (Mariners), Drake Baldwin (Braves), Harry Ford (Mariners), Edgar Quero (White Sox), Termarr Johnson (Pirates) and Thayron Liranzo (Tigers).
Some additional interesting international players also demonstrate discerning eyes such as Paulino Santana (Rangers) and Luis Cova (Marlins).
Santana also appeared in the above Ben Badler article as an athletic center fielder with plus speed. Now, we see he also possesses excellent swing decisions. With his above-average contact rate, the ingredients are there for a big step forward for the Dominican outfielder in 2025.
Cova was another high-profile signing in 2024 and received solid scouting reports despite disappointing surface stats. With his ability to make excellent swing decisions, paired with a contact rate of nearly 85%, it’s easy to see why. While Cova needs to focus on elevating the ball with more authority in game situations in 2025, his appearance in this quadrant is encouraging.
A final name to discuss here is Eric Bitonti (Brewers), who was mentioned in multiple RoboScout articles to end the season for his prodigious power and 30-home run potential. Here, he is seen to also be making swing decisions in the upper quartile of the minor leagues. With several members of the Brewers organization found in this quadrant, it seems likely that either the Brewers are targeting prospects with this skill or are emphasizing developing it.
Other hitters of note in this quadrant [IZ-Swing%, Chase%], but located closer to the average: Blake Mitchell (Royals) [75%, 19%], Marcelo Mayer (Red Sox) [80%, 26%], Ralphy Velazquez (Guardians) [80%, 26%], Xavier Isaac (Rays) [76%, 25%], Kevin Parada (Mets) [82%, 26%], C.J. Kayfus (Guardians) [80%, 25%], Tre’ Morgan (Rays) [80%, 26%], Tyler Black (Brewers) [75%, 20%], Matthew Lugo (Angels) [78%, 26%], Andres Valor (Marlins) [81%, 26%], Jace Bohrofen (Blue Jays) [81%, 20%], Roberto Campos (Tigers) [83%, 25%], Juan Baez (Brewers) [86%, 27%], Jose Anderson (Brewers) [81%, 23%], Andrew Musett (Red Sox) [74%, 17%], Yeiker Reyes (Rockies) [79%, 22%], Peyton Williams (Blue Jays) [80%, 24%],
The Passive Hitters: (IZ-Swing% <74%, Chase <27%):
Let’s zoom into this part of the graph:
The two biggest outliers of notable repute are Chase Meidroth (Red Sox) and Luke Adams (Brewers), who also happen to be two of the more divisive prospects for traditional scouts and stat line hounds. The fact that they are both exceedingly passive might account for the bulk of why there is such a discrepancy in assessment, as the surface walk rates might jump out on the page, whereas a live look may attribute that to them never taking the batt off their shoulder.
Adams, another Brewer, does supplement his passive approach with contact rates and bat speed that are both above average.
There are some high-profile prospects who find themselves in this quadrant, including our No.1 prospect Roman Anthony (Red Sox) who, while chasing at a better than average rate of 21%, also doesn’t swing too often at pitches in the heart of the zone (only a near 60% rate).
Interestingly, Zyhir Hope (Dodgers) and Brice Matthews (Astros)—two sluggers with exit velocities near the top of the scale—both chase at a sub-17% rate, but also don’t hunt in the zone as much as we might expect.
Another interesting pair of passive hitters are Eduardo Quintero (Dodgers) and Jonny Farmelo (Mariners), who are extremely discriminating when it comes to swinging the bat. Keep this in mind when looking at their walk rates.
One final name to mention is Starlyn Caba (Phillies). The shortstop had more walks than strikeouts in 115 plate appearances for Low-A Clearwater in 2024, all while playing excellent defense, and making plus contact. Not only does Caba have very little present power, he is extremely passive at the plate. Interestingly enough, Caba was even more passive this year, swinging at 34% of the time, compared to his 38% mark last year. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies get him to be a bit more aggressive in 2025.
Some other noteworthy hitters found in this quadrant and are more passive to varying degrees [with their IZ-Swing% and Chase%]: Mike Boeve (Brewers) [61%, 20%], Ryan Clifford (Mets) [61%, 21%], Jaison Chourio (Guardians) [63%, 18%], Nacho Alvarez Jr. (Braves) [66%, 22%], Brock Wilken (Brewers) [66%, 22%], Max Clark (Tigers [67%, 21%], Aidan Miller (Phillies) [68%, 20%], Jackson Holliday (Orioles), Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) [69%, 18%], Jonathon Long (Cubs) [68%, 22%].
Interestingly, Emmanuel Rodriguez (Twins) who chases 9.5% of the time—one of the lowest rates of any qualified hitter—actually swings at pitches in the heart of the zone over 70% of the time, showing one of the most discerning eyes in the minor leagues.
The Free-Swingers: (IZ-Swing% >74%, Chase >27%):
Next, let’s look at the bottom-right portion of the graph:
This quadrant consists of the free-swingers. Here, it doesn’t seem to matter whether the pitch is a strike or not; they will swing. It’s possible for this approach to work: Bo Bichette, Salvador Perez, and Javier Baez have all had successful major league careers despite chase rates of 37%, 42% and 42%, respectively, due to the damage they are able to inflict when they make contact. This transcends the negative run value they incur by swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone.
In 2023, the poster child for this profile was Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Reds), who had a 39% chase rate in the minor leagues. The 2024 version is Deyvison De Los Santos (Marlins), who had an even higher chase rate that approached 44%. Of course, De Los Santos also had an xwOBAcon of .445—one of the highest marks in the minor leagues—and hit 28 home runs as a 21-year old across the two upper levels.
Two popular prospects across the fantasy industry are Echedry Vargas (Rangers) and Hector Rodriguez (Reds). Their appearance in this quadrant of hitters, however, suggests caution when assessing them. As they progress into the upper levels, savvy pitchers may be able to exploit their propensity for chasing, adding risk to the profile.
With an xwOBAcon of .412 and league-average contact rate, Jhostynxon Garcia (Red Sox) is probably one of the safer prospects here. On the other side of the coin is Justin Crawford (Phillies), who has an xwOBAcon of only .302 on account of his high groundball rate. It would behoove Crawford to either tighten up his swing decisions or work on developing more damage on contact.
Some other hitters of note featuring above average swing rates both inside and outside of the zone in this quadrant [IZ-Swing%, Chase%] are: Colby Thomas (Athletics) [83%, 35%], Yanquiel Fernandez (Rockies) [80%, 38%], Andy Perez (Rockies) [83%, 40%], Gabriel Gonzalez (Twins) [80%, 34%], Cristhian Vaquero (Nationals) [79%, 33%], Mikey Romero (Red Sox) [82%, 35%], Adrian Santana (Rays) [81%, 32%], Connor Norby (Marlins) [81%, 32%], Victor Mesa Jr. (Marlins) [86%, 34%]
The Danger Zone: (IZ-Swing% <74%, Chase >27%):
Finally, let’s zoom into the quadrant in the bottom-left:
It brings me no joy to mention some of the hitters who we find in this zone. While not a prospect death sentence, it does highlight some players who should work on this element of their game in order to maximize their chances for future success at the highest level.
Although we see some higher profile hitters such as Colin Houck (Mets) and Matt Shaw (Cubs) here, they don’t chase at a rate that is particularly concerning (though with Houck, it is interesting that he is showing such tentativeness on pitches in the heart of the zone).
However, two young international hitters of some repute—Ashly Andujar (Rockies) and Anthony Gutierrez (Rangers)—do show that they need to work on their pitch discernment, as they are not currently exhibiting ideal swing decision-making.
Andujar, who signed for $1.7 million, is young for the class and has high-end athleticism. Because he has such advanced bat-to-ball skills featuring a contact rate of 82%, it hasn’t been a problem yet. However, he will need to work on making better swing decisions in order to temper the risk in the profile. Gutierrez, a 2022 signee out of Venezuela, already came into 2024 with industry concerns regarding the aggressiveness and swing decisions , and he did not allay the fears with any great significance.
Another name of note here is Samuel Basallo (Orioles), who not only chased at a fairly high 32% rate, but also only swung at 70% of pitches in the heart of the zone. His chase rate and overall swing rate of 50% are both nearly identical to his 2023 rates. While the young catcher reached Triple-A as a teenager, suggesting that it hasn’t proven to be a concern, note that in 86 plate appearances at Norfolk, he did strike out 31% of the time.
A pair of upper level Rays also appear here: Osleivis Basabe and Curtis Mead.
Basabe has always had a propensity for swinging at pitches out of the zone. He had a higher-than-35% rate for the last two years, including a 38% rate in the major leagues in his debut in 2023, which is a rate that would have been in the top 25 had he qualified. Interestingly, Mead had chase rates in 2022 and 2023 of 24% and 25%, respectively, and then jumped up to 35% in 2024. While his contact rate is still above average, this is something to keep an eye on.
More players of note in this quadrant [IZ-Swing%, Chase%]: Enmanuel Bonilla (Blue Jays) [70%, 33%], Elijah Green (Nationals) [72%, 32%], Tirso Ornelas (Padres) [71%, 31%], Lizandro Rodriguez (Royals) [65%, 34%]
