Prop bet #1: Gallant Effort
Jorge Lopez may or may not have called the New York Mets the “worst f---ing team” in baseball. Whether the now former Mets pitcher said it or not doesn’t really matter anymore, because now we’re all thinking it.
And while the Mets may not be the worst team in baseball thanks to the existence of teams like the Chicago White Sox, they aren’t too far off that dubious distinction.
The Mets will have to quickly get that thought out of their heads as they open a four-game set with Arizona Diamondbacks who hand the ball to ace Zac Gallen.
The 28-year-old has been steady, if unspectacular this season pitching to a 3.90 expected ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 25.9%. But that should be more than good enough in this matchup.
Gallen will face off against a Mets team that ranks 24th in batting average, 22nd in OPS, and 17th in wRC+. So, not the worst, but you can definitely say this lineup is underperforming. Gallen has also been a problem for Mets hitters. Current Mets hitters have a combined .222 expected batting average and a.350 expected slugging vs. Gallen.
New York counters Gallen with prospect Christian Scott. The 24-year-old right-hander has shown flashes of his potential but has a 5.06 ERA over his last three starts.
The Diamondbacks have also struggled to produce, but I like this matchup for them, Scott uses his fastball more than 50% of the time and will allow an experienced lineup to narrow their approach.
On top of that, morale in New York is low and I like Gallen and the D-back to take advantage and secure the win for their starter.
Zac Gallen prop: To record the win (+165 at bet365)
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Prop bet #2: Olsen's only Over
Yesterday, in breaking down Marcell Ozuna’s RBI prop, I talked about how the Atlanta Braves are one of the few teams that can handle the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (Ozuna cashed for us by the way). That’s because the Braves have one of baseball's deepest and most talented lineups.
That lineup includes first baseman Matt Olson. The two-time All-Star was going through a pretty terrible slump up until about a week ago. But remember this guy who led the National League in home runs, RBIs, and slugging percentage last season and is starting to get that stroke back.
Olson is currently in the middle of a five-game hitting streak where he has a .400 average and a 1.150 OPS. That includes four doubles and a dinger and I like him to keep that streak going as he digs into the batter’s box to take on Washington Nationals’ starter Trevor Williams.
Now, Williams is having a career year pitching to a 2.29 ERA but could be in for a bit of regression. The right-hander’s expected ERA is almost a whole run higher at 3.19 and when he gets hit, he’s getting hit hard.
Williams ranks in the 31st percentile in average exit velocity and the 32nd percentile in hard-hit percentage with left-handed hitters doing the most damage getting to him for a .254 average.
Olson also has solid numbers against Williams even if it is a small sample size, going 2-6 with a home run. That works out to a .302 expected batting average and a.707 expected slugging.
The Braves slugger has gone Over 1.5 total bases in three of his last four games and our Covers Prop Projections have him set at 2.0 total bases, meaning there is value in the Over at this price.
Matt Olson prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
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Prop bet #3: Connecting on Carlos
The New York Yankees are 38-19, which is the best record in the American League, and lead the AL East by a game-and-a-half over the Baltimore Orioles. Obviously, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been impressive but I think the most impressive thing about this start is the way the starting rotation has performed without Gerrit Cole.
It’s almost to the point where they have overperformed and there could be a regression in store for some of them. I’m looking at you Carlos Rodon, who takes the ball on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Angels.
Rodon is coming off a great start against the San Diego Padres where he allowed just three hits and no runs over six innings, dropping his ERA to 2.95. However, the left-hander’s expected ERA is sitting well below average at 4.50.
The issue is Rodon’s four-seam fastball which he throws 55% of the time. Opponents have a .279 expected batting average and a .550 expected slugging against it.
And here’s something I did not expect to write. Even without Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels are one of the best teams in baseball at handling southpaws. L.A. ranks second in batting average, fourth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.
That has me targeting Rodon’s hits-allowed prop which is on the board at 4.5. Rodon has gone Over that number in seven of his 11 starts this season. The four games where he stayed Under came against teams that ranked 15th, 21st, 24th, and 30th in wRC+ vs. lefties.
Rodon has been good at working himself out of jams this season but I think he’ll find himself in a few more tonight as the Angels help us cash the Over on this prop.
Carlos Rodon prop: Over 4.5 hits allowed (-120 at bet365)
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