The Mets’ roster is in an awkward position right now. Since designating Joey Wendle for assignment, they are operating without a real backup at second base and shortstop. The upside to this deficiency is that it allows Brett Baty and Mark Vientos to both be on the active roster at the same time, and the two have split playing time over the past several games. But this is not an arrangement that can last forever; Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil will eventually need some days off, and every game the Mets play without a genuine backup at those two spot runs the risk of being forced to play an out of position player there if one of the two gets hurt during a game.
There are a number of potential options for the backup middle infielder spot down at Syracuse, and who the Mets choose to fill that role probably doesn’t make that big a difference in the grand scheme of things. The bigger decision is which of the two young third basem*n should be sent down and which should remain as the de facto everyday third baseman. It’s an important decision, but not a difficult one: Mark Vientos should remain, and Brett Baty should be sent down to Syracuse.
Let’s be clear: While Vientos has had a few nice moments in the majors thus far in 2024, he still hasn’t really given us any reason to believe he’s a fundamentally different player than the one he’s historically been. The sample sizes are still small, of course, and can change very quickly with a few good games. But the underlying numbers right now are in line with the player who has struggled in the major leagues over the past couple years. He is still a guy who struggles to make contact (76.9% Z-contact, 33.3% chase rate, 29.8% whiff rate—all worse than league average). He still hits the ball on the ground too much (47.8% rate), and while he hasn’t had that much playing time at third base just yet, we have not seen any reason to believe that his glove will be good enough to make him an effective everyday regular at third. The Mets can hope for the best from him, and maybe getting extended everyday time would allow him to improve on these areas. But we shouldn’t be surprised if these flaws ultimately drag down his production and he proves to be an ineffective solution.
So why should he be handed the everyday third base job? It’s less about what Vientos has shown up to this point and more about what Baty hasn’t shown. We can certainly point to the underlying data to explain the reasons to be skeptical about the former, but there’s really no need to do that for the latter; he has proven over the course of these past two months that he is not up to the task of being an effective hitter at the major league level.
If you do want to look under the hood on Baty’s production, the sea of blue you will see on his Baseball Savant page will horrify you. Like Vientos, the problems that have constantly been concerns for him have either remained or gotten even worse (looking at you, 53.5% ground ball rate). However, one crucial difference does stand out between these two players: while both of them have some of the same flaws (hitting too many ground balls, chasing too much), Vientos has at least shown the ability to hit the ball hard when he does make contact. His 90 MPH average exit velocity is above the league average of 88.5, while Baty’s 85.3 is not just below it—it’s one of the worst in the league. Thus, his mediocre offensive numbers so far (83 wRC+) are not a fluke—if anything, you could argue that he’s been getting lucky, as his expected batting average and wOBA are a bit lower than his actual numbers.
This is a far cry from the player Baty was as a prospect, and even from the player he was last year, when he was still generally able to hit the ball reasonably hard. But it’s still unfortunately a continuation of the problems that many people—myself included!—have identified with him. His inability to adopt an approach at the plate that will allow him to make better contact and hit more balls in the air has dogged him for his entire time in the major league, and it’s come to a head over these past couple months. Whether the fault lies with Baty on not making the appropriate adjustments, the Mets hitting coaches for not helping him with these adjustments, or some combination of the two, the result is the same: he has looked like he is on the path to being one of the bigger prospect busts for the Mets over the past decade.
Still, the organization might not want to fully give up on him. They might want to hope that something will eventually click if he just gets more plate appearances. But for a team that has struggled so mightily at the plate, continuing to give everyday plate appearances to a player who has shown absolutely no ability to overcome his glaring flaws is simply not workable. Nobody should expect Vientos’s 222 wRC+ to stick—it would qualify as a major victory if it were only cut in half—and the Mets will probably be taking a hit defensively, as Baty’s improvements in the field do seem to be legitimate. But simply having some measure of hope that their third baseman can hit the ball hard and get an extra base hit or two would be an improvement over what they are currently working with. Meanwhile, the Mets could finally give Vientos the everyday opportunity he and several segments of the fanbase have been clamoring for, and he will either rise above his current flaws and be a productive player or (arguably more likely) he will prove that is also not the answer, and the Mets will know that they need to look elsewhere for a third base solution going forward.
Of course, this whole dilemma points to another glaring issue: this should really not be the choice that the Mets are forced into. The team knew exactly the kind of obstacles that Baty and Vientos had to overcome to be effective third basem*n at the major league level, and yet the only backup option they secured over the offseason was Wendle—who has already been shown the door. David Stearns and company should have done more to hedge their bets against the scenario in which neither of these two young players were able to give acceptable production, and the fact that they didn’t is one of the biggest black marks against this new front office thus far.
Alas, this is the position they are in. This is the decision they have to make—though it has really already been made for them with the level of play from both these two players and the offense as a whole. Vientos might ultimately prove to be just as unproductive as Baty has proven to be, but the Mets have little choice but to hope that he can defy the statistical odds. If he can, then Baty’s failure to develop into the player we had hoped he would become will sting a little bit less. If he doesn’t—well, it’s already looking like a pretty gloomy season for the Mets, so what’s one more disappointment?
