Jakarta governor election to remain high-stakes contest, despite Nusantara taking over as Indonesia’s capital (2024)

JAKARTA: About 20 names have emerged as potential candidates for Jakarta governor, one of the most prominent positions up for grabs when Indonesia holds its local elections in November.

Heavyweights in the mix include former presidential candidate and Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, former Jakarta governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama or Ahok, several current ministers including finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and rising political star and former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil.

Incoming president Prabowo Subianto’s niece and nephew, Ms Sara Djojohadikusumo and Mr Budi Djiwandono, are also touted as candidates.

Jakarta, a metropolis of 10.5 million people, is set to lose its status as Indonesia’s capital when the country celebrates its 79th Independence Day on Aug 17 in the new capital Nusantara.

President Widodo signed a law changing the status of Jakarta from “capital special area” to “special area” on Apr 25.

But until the presidential decree on moving the capital to Kalimantan is issued, Jakarta remains the country's capital.

The role of Jakarta governor remains highly coveted as the city will remain a business and financial hub, and due to the track record of its past governors who have gone on to achieve to bigger things, say political analysts.

Outgoing president Joko Widodo, who will step down in October, is a prime example. He served as governor of Jakarta from 2012 until he won in the 2014 presidential election.

Mr Anies, who was Jakarta governor from 2017 to 2022, contested in February’s presidential election but lost to Mr Prabowo.

Jakarta’s interim governor is Mr Heru Budi Hartono, who was a former head of Mr Widodo’s presidential secretariat. He has held the interim role since Oct 2022 when Mr Anies’ term ended.

Jakarta’s star and, consequently, that of its governor, will shine brightly even after Nusantara’s first phase is completed because the new capital in eastern Kalimantan remains a work-in-progress, said political analyst Ujang Komarudin from Al Azhar University.

Some 10,000 civil servants are expected to move there in September, but it is slated to be completed in five phases, with the final phase targeted for 2045 when Indonesia celebrates its centennial.

“Therefore, Jakarta will still be a magnet because it will still be the centre of economy, business, education and a melting pot of various ethnic groups,” said Mr Ujang.

Nusantara, which is also called Ibu Kota Negara or IKN, does not have a governor presently and will not be electing one in the November elections. Instead, its head is appointed by the president and will lead for five years.

That man is Mr Bambang Susantono, head of the Nusantara Capital Authority since 2022. His role is equivalent to that of a minister and reports directly to the president.

SPRINGBOARD TO HIGHER OFFICE?

For now, Nusantara cannot replace Jakarta in the eyes of Indonesia’s political and business elites, analysts say.

“The public may not be that interested in (the Jakarta election), but this is important to the (political) elites,” said Mr Aditya Perdana, a political lecturer from the University of Indonesia.

Jakarta is central to the country’s economy, he said. According to government data, Indonesia’s economy is concentrated in Java. Jakarta has Indonesia’s highest per capita gross regional domestic product of about US$19,000, which was seven times that of Central Java, according to 2022 data.

Political analyst Nicky Fahrizal from the think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) pointed out an assumption prevalent among the political elites: “Whoever (wins) the Jakarta election can be the next president or vice-president in this republic.”

This assumption stems largely from the career paths of recent Jakarta governors including Mr Widodo and Mr Anies, he reckons.

Candidates may say their objective is to continue building Jakarta, but the role’s visibility is undeniable, said Mr Ujang. “By being Jakarta’s governor, one may become popular, and this can be a springboard to be a presidential or vice-presidential candidate,” he said.

THE POTENTIAL CANDIDATES SO FAR

To contest on Nov 27, a candidate can run independently or be backed by political parties.

Those backed by political parties may register as potential candidates only at the end of August.

Jakarta’s election commission will announce the candidates in September. But with more than four months to go, multiple names have been floated.

Mr Prabowo’s party Gerindra is considering several people including his niece Rahayu Saraswati Djojohadikusumo – often referred to as Sara Djojohadikusumo – and his nephew Budi Djiwandono. They are both members of Gerindra.

Former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil, who backed Mr Prabowo during the presidential election, is also being touted as a contender by his party, Golkar. His tenure as governor of West Java ended in September last year.

Despite billboards of Mr Ridwan with the tagline “on the way Jakarta” adorning some parts of the capital, the head of Golkar’s West Java chapter Ace Hasan Syadzily said on Tuesday (May 14) that Mr Ridwan prefers to run in West Java again.

"Mr Ridwan Kamil has told me that he is so far leaning towards (running in) West Java,” Mr Ace said. “But he also said to me that where he will be ‘assigned’ depends on the party.”

An individual may serve as governor twice and, since Mr Ridwan has only served once, he may make another bid.

Ahok, meanwhile, sparked a political wave recently after launching a podcast called "Ask Ahok Anything" to address issues faced by Jakarta and its residents.

He took over as Jakarta governor in 2014 after Mr Widodo, also known as Jokowi, became president. Ahok ran in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election against two other candidates: Mr Anies, who was briefly Jokowi’s education minister until 2016, and Mr Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, son of former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Initially, Ahok emerged on top but as he did not secure more than 50 per cent of the vote, the election went into a runoff where he lost against Mr Anies.

He was imprisoned for blasphemy shortly after the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election and released in January 2019.

Like him, Mr Anies is allowed to contest again.

Observers fancy his chances but note he does not belong to any political party.

To run independently, hopefuls had to register with Jakarta’s election commission between May 8 and 12. Mr Anies did not register then, which means he must be backed by political parties should he want to contest this time.

In 2017, he was backed by Gerindra and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). In the second round of the election, the National Mandate Party (PAN) joined the coalition to back him.

The only pair to register independently for this year’s gubernatorial election was retired police commissioner general Dharma Pongrekun, who chose Mr Kun Wardana Abyoto, who is self-employed, as his running mate.

Independent candidates are, however, usually not strong contenders, said Mr Aditya from the University of Indonesia.

“Independent candidates are usually irrelevant because they are considered second options,” he said, adding that they are without the support of experienced political parties with campaign machinery.

The emergence of so many names for the Jakarta election is not unusual.

In the 2012 election, for example, six pairs of candidates contested in the first round while in the 2017 election, there were initially three pairs before the contest went into a runoff.

THE ANIES OR JOKOWI FACTOR?

Should Mr Anies throw his hat into the ring, observers say he stands a good chance of winning.

“Other candidates may want to reconsider if he does run,” said Mr Aditya. “He will change the game. There will probably be only two (pairs of) candidates (backed by political parties) …those who are against Anies and those who are his supporters.”

But Jokowi’s backing is a crucial factor that could determine the winner of the Jakarta election, noted Mr Nicky from CSIS.

On this front, Mr Anies is unlikely to have Jokowi’s support, given a widely reported rift between them ever since Jokowi dismissed him as education minister in 2016.

Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who will be Mr Prabowo’s vice-president, is also seen as the potential head of a newly formed authority called the Jakarta Agglomeration Area Council, which has been tasked to come up with a blueprint to solve problems such as transportation, flooding, spatial planning and environmental degradation in the city and its suburbs.

“Jokowi’s people are still around. If we want to be frank, we still have the same police and military chief (as during February’s election). And the bureaucrats within the interior ministry are also the people of Mr Tito (Karnavian, the current Interior Minister), who is very close to Jokowi,” Mr Nicky highlighted.

If Mr Anies runs again, he will need to be backed by a big party such as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the current ruling party, said Mr Nicky. This would enable him to compete against a Jokowi-backed candidate.

Despite its candidate Ganjar Pranowo losing in the presidential election, PDI-P still won the legislative election in February and is shaping up to be the opposition during Mr Prabowo’s term.

The race to be Jakarta governor will be closely watched in the coming months for reasons beyond the role’s high profile, say analysts.

The election will be interesting because Jakartans do not have a voting pattern, said Mr Aditya.

“There are no die-hard voters for a particular ... politician,” he said.“It is hard to predict what will happen.”